Fire danger Monday, severe weather potential on Tuesday

(TULSA, Okla.) A Pacific front pushed into northwest Arkansas Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue behind the front in association with an expansive upper low currently centered over far southeast Colorado. Widespread 1.0-1.5-inch rainfall amounts are expected before precipitation begins to shift east by mid to late evening. Although instability is currently limited, we could still see a few storms produce small hail and heavy rainfall. Warm and breezy conditions are forecast on Monday as a surface low tracks across southern Kansas and begins to slowly weaken. Although most areas will have seen significant rainfall by this time, an elevated fire weather danger will likely develop Monday afternoon across southeast Oklahoma with minimum RH values falling into the 25-30 percent range. This area also received the least amount of rainfall, therefore fine fuels will likely dry out quickly and if ignited could spread out of control. A strong, compact upper low, mentioned in previous discussions, will quickly shift east over the desert southwest during the day Tuesday and approach the region from the west Tuesday night. If lower 60s dewpoints materialize in the warm sector, strong wind profiles will support scattered supercells with very large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. There are still some uncertainties regarding the overall extent of severe weather Tuesday evening into Tuesday night. As we get a little closer to the event, we will likely get a better handle on moisture return, instability and the potential for a more substantial severe threat. Storms will likely sweep east of the area Wednesday morning with the severe threat ending. Cold and breezy conditions are expected behind the departing system Thursday with surface high pressure building over the southern plains Friday. Temperatures will begin to moderate over the weekend with highs back into the 60s. Monday Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 68. South wind 10 to 20 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west 5 to 10 mph after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 74. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Showers and thunderstorms likely before 2pm, then a chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 65. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. Northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Thursday A 30 percent chance of showers before 8am. Partly sunny, with a high near 54. Northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 39. North wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. North wind around 10 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 63. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 42. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.