A wet week ahead

(TULSA, Okla.) An omega blocking pattern over the eastern Pacific is here to stay for quite some time, at least the next two weeks. Downstream split flow will continue to bring unsettled weather to our area, as fronts which are sent down from the northern stream stall beneath southern stream southwest flow aloft. One upper low after another is ejected into the Plains from the southwest in that southern stream flow, bringing multiple rounds of showers and storms. The first system brought the rains Saturday which are working to gradually saturate the soils across the region, and each successive round will do the same. Multiple rounds of widespread rainfall will likely cause some main stem rivers such as the Neosho and Illinois to flood, possibly aided by the fact that vegetation is still dormant for the most part thus aiding in runoff potential. After a break Sunday, rain chances ramp back up tonight into Monday as another round of warm air advection commences to the north of the stalled or slowly retreating front across TX. After a relative lull during the afternoon, another round of showers and storms gets going Monday night into Tuesday ahead of another front pushed into the region by a northern stream wave. Again, another relative lull in the action during the day Tuesday before yet another round Tuesday night into Wednesday. More rain and storms Wednesday night into Thursday as energy from what seems like a permanent upper low over the southwest ejects into the Plains. It is increasingly likely that by this time, if not before, a flood watch would be needed for a portion of the area, with more intense storms expected and higher rainfall rates over saturating soils from multiple rounds of rain. The best chance for severe weather still appears to be Thursday and Thursday evening as the upper system ejects northeast into the Plains with negative tilt. Still, the devil is in the details when it comes to the magnitude of the threat. We could certainly see potential for elevated hailers Wednesday night into Thursday morning. Guidance suggests this activity will be extensive and could last well into the day, potentially limiting destabilization. Nevertheless, based on blended guidance forecast highs Thursday, there is probably some potential for destabilization on the western fringe of the moist axis ahead of the dryline/front by afternoon. If any storms can go the environment would be favorable for severe storms. We are still many days out and the details will become clearer as we get closer. Below average cooler air will push into the region in the wake of this system Friday and especially Saturday. More unsettled weather is expected by the end of the weekend on into the following work week. Monday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 57. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cloudy, with a high near 62. East wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Tuesday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 58. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 75. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Low around 65. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Thursday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. Breezy, with a south wind 15 to 25 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 42. South wind around 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 54. Northwest wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 34. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 55. Northeast wind around 10 mph.