Severe weather chances followed by a warmup

(TULSA, Okla.) Southerly winds have begun to usher in moisture, setting the stage for strong to severe thunderstorms for Monday and Tuesday. Precipitation chances make a return to the forecast by early Monday morning. Conditions are not overly favorable for severe weather but a few strong to marginally severe storms cant be ruled out given the time of the year. Best chances for stronger storms appears to be over southeastern Oklahoma at this time with the main severe threats being gusty winds and hail possibly up to half dollar size. Tuesday looks to see improved conditions for severe weather as a stream of deep moisture characterized by surface dew points well into the 60s and possibly lower 70s streams into the area. Shear by Tuesday afternoon is expected to be sufficient for organized convection (supercellular development possible). This system is still a couple days days out with many details still a little fuzzy at this time. Future forecasts will continue to refine the area of greatest concern as well as possible severe weather threats. As it stands now, it appears that the main severe threats will be large hail and damaging wind gusts with the area of greatest concern from about interstate 40 and southward. Given the deeper moisture with this particular system and sufficient shear, an isolated tornado threat can’t be ruled out. The aforementioned deeper moisture, characterized by near historic to historic precipitable water (according to the SPC sounding climatology page) of 1.4 to 1.9 inches will also yield the potential for flash/river flooding on Tuesday. Torrential downpours are expected with thunderstorms on Tuesday as a result of the elevated precipitation and any storms that train over the same area will locally elevate the threat for flooding. This threat will continue to be monitored. By Wednesday morning the broad long wave trough that will bring us unsettled weather for early next week will have exited the plains. This will make way for mid level height rises as a result of a mid level ridge moving out onto the plains. Wednesday through at least Friday looks dry and warm with temps expected to rise well into the 80s to near 90 by the end of next week into next weekend. The middle to latter part of the upcoming work week may see the fire danger threat begin to creep up. This potential will continue to be monitored. The extended range shows low chances for showers/storms by the start of next weekend. More agreement for showers and thunderstorms is shown across most solutions by next Sunday. Past Sunday, the overall weather pattern appears to be pretty stormy with multiple storm systems possible. The extended forecast will continue to be refined over the coming days. Monday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 76. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind around 10 mph. Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. High near 80. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. North wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 74. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 51. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light in the evening. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 79. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 60. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind around 10 mph.