Below normal temps, a warming trend, and a chance for severe weather

After a couple of days of below normal temperatures, a warming trend will ensue by mid-week. Shower and thunderstorm chances will increase late Friday and especially by Friday night. Severe weather appears possible, mainly for southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas.

Winds continued to diminish some Monday as the pressure gradient relaxes across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as the intense low pressure system that affected the area Sunday moves eastward through the Great Lakes region. Enough wind remained early Monday morning to result in some fairly low wind chills across parts of the area given the much lower temperatures in the wake of the system. Expect wind chills in the upper single digits across areas near the Kansas border and also far northwest Arkansas.

Well below normal afternoon temperatures will occur both Monday and Tuesday despite increased sunshine, with another chilly night sandwiched in-between. A warmup begins in earnest on Wednesday as southerly winds return to the region. Increasing low level moisture ahead of a weekend storm system will lead to increasing cloudiness by Thursday, with any low rain chances this early in the week likely to be limited to eastern sections of the forecast area.

Higher rain chances will begin to move into the area during the day Friday along a lingering front, especially across parts of southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Isolated thunderstorms may also occur in this same area. More widespread showers and greater thunderstorm potential will arrive Friday night as a strong upper level disturbance moves through the Southern and Central Plains. 

Locally heavy rainfall could become a problem, again in southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, before the dry slot moves in during the day Saturday. Confidence in this scenario is increased over the past few mornings, as models are in decent agreement, especially compared to over the weekend. 

Cooler and drier weather should prevail for the latter half of the upcoming weekend, although another chance of precipitation appears in the offing for early next week.

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