Active weather pattern to continue into Monday

(TULSA, Okla.) The primary severe weather threat is Sunday evening into the overnight hours as a Mesoscale Convective System tracks southeast across much of the area. The main threat with these storms will likely be damaging winds in the stronger bow segments and locally heavy rainfall. We could also see a limited tornado threat across Northeast Oklahoma within the main convective line by mid/late evening as low level jet begins to strengthen. This active weather pattern will continue on Monday as weak frontal boundary pushes into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon. Air-mass will again become very unstable along/south of boundary with deep layer shear in the 35-40 knot range. Large hail will be possible with any discrete storms initially across Northeast Oklahoma before transitioning to a damaging wind threat as convection becomes more linear with time. Locally heavy rainfall will also be likely with precipitable water in excess of 2.0 inches. Flooding could become a significant concern, especially in areas that receive heavy rainfall Sunday night. A cold front will begin to push south into the region by early Tuesday afternoon with the severe/heavy rainfall threat ending. Low precipitation chances will continue across southeast Oklahoma mid-week, including northwest Arkansas Thursday-Saturday as a moist/unstable air-mass lifts back north. From then out, temperatures will be close to normal for this time of year. Monday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind around 10 mph. Monday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. North wind around 5 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 64. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Calm wind. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight. Thursday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. South wind around 10 mph. Friday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. South wind 10 to 15 mph. Friday Night A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 73. South wind around 10 mph. Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89. South wind around 10 mph.