Tornado Watch in effect for most of Oklahoma until 12 AM

A Tornado Watch is in effect until 12 a.m. Saturday for the following counties:

Adair, Atoka, Bryan, Caddo, Canadian, Carter, Cherokee, Choctaw, Cleveland, Coal, Comanche, Cotton,  Craig, Creek, Delaware, Garvin, Grady, Haskell, Hughes, Jefferson, Johnston, Kingfisher, Latimer, Le Flore, Lincoln, Logan, Love, Marshall, Mayes, Mcclain, Mcintosh, Murray, Muskogee, Noble, Nowata, Okfuskee, Oklahoma, Okmulgee, Osage, Ottawa, Pawnee, Payne, Pittsburg, Pontotoc, Pottawatomie, Pushmataha, Rogers, Seminole, Sequoyah, Stephens, Tillman, Tulsa, Wagoner, Washington.

The Enhanced Risk has been expanded to include much of eastern Oklahoma. Severe thunderstorms are expected across the region through 2 AM Saturday.

Tornadoes, very large hail, and damaging winds to 70 mph are possible with these storms, with the greatest risk in the enhanced area.

Our main forecast concern is severe weather potential Friday night. Fire weather will be a concern on Saturday. Finally, in about a week, winter weather potential will increase as one would typically expect in December.

Friday’s storms will likely cut across a portion of northeast Oklahoma, especially from the Tulsa area and to the north and west, between roughly 7 p.m. and 10 p.m. with all hazards possible. The second main area of development will likely get going around 8 p.m. fairly close to the highway 69 corridor in eastern OK, as the mid-level speed max hits the western edge of the deeper moisture.

A broken band of cellular, and more than likely rotating, convection will progress rapidly northeast into western AR through 12 a.m. or 1 a.m.  

The intensifying shear, at both the low levels and aloft, combined with moderate instability lifting into the region with the warm front suggest that the potential for strong tornadoes exists, along with very large hail. People across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas should be weather aware this evening.

Gusty west to southwest winds on Saturday, along with dry and mild conditions over the region in the wake of tonight`s system, will elevate fire weather potential, especially since fuels have been cured from the recent cold weather.

While there are still differences in the details, which is expected in the day 6-7 time frames, models show increasing chances for precipitation across the region late next week in advance of a decent southern stream wave. There is potential for winter weather by next Friday.