High heat and storms continue for another week

(TULSA, Okla.) The heat and convective potential are the main and typical forecast challenges for this time of year. Looking aloft, the ridge of high pressure that was overhead Friday and Saturday has shifted to the Southeast. A well-defined storm system moved east along the Kansas/Nebraska border. At the surface, a cool front is stretching from the Great Lakes southwest into eastern Kansas, while lee side troughing resided out on the High Plains. The consensus of the models suggests that storms will develop near the tail end of the front over eastern Kansas with some potential for propagation along outflow down into Northeast Oklahoma Sunday night and the probability of precipitation will reflect this thinking. By Monday afternoon, potential for isolated pop up showers and storms increases over much of the area, but the greatest chance for showers and storms will remain across northern Oklahoma near the Kansas border close to the effective boundary where several models show a broken SW-NE oriented band of storms. Storms could form clusters with limited severe wind potential in this region during the afternoon and evening. More mainly diurnal storm chances will continue over much of the area Tuesday and Wednesday, with the highest chances over western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. As the mid-level ridge rebuilds over the region toward the end of the week, storm chances will drop and will be more confined to the terrain of western Arkansas and southeast Oklahoma. Current forecast shows some potential for heat advisory criteria over west central Arkansas, and more specifically, in the lower Ark River valley Monday afternoon. This area would be south of the higher convective chances and any flies in the ointment that could present. Relatively cooler weather due to the westward retreat of the low-level thermal ridge, along with more clouds and higher rain potential should hold advisory level heat at bay for a few days this upcoming week. Advisory level heat may make a return by late in the week and into next weekend coincident with the re-strengthening of the mid-level ridge. Monday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Sunny, with a high near 95. Heat index values as high as 100. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Monday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 93. South wind around 5 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph. Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 93. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. South wind around 5 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 76. South wind around 5 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 95. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 76. South wind around 5 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. South wind 5 to 10 mph.