Showers and thunderstorms expected next week

(TULSA, Okla.) Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected next week across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas as a cold front moves into the region and stalls out. 1 to 4 inches of rain will be common across the area with locally higher amounts possible. The cold front is currently pushing south from Northwest Kansas. Convection may develop into Northeast Oklahoma before sunrise Monday with a steady uptick in precipitation coverage expected through the day. Rain chances remain high Monday night into Tuesday and gradually expand southward across much of the forecast area. Models show locally heavy rainfall potential with high precipitable water and deep warm cloud layers, along with generally slow storm motions focused along the weak surface boundary. A localized though more organized precipitation event remains possible Monday night into Tuesday, though this potential remains highly uncertain in both development and placement. Several model solutions continue with localized extreme rainfall totals and the background environment will be supportive of such potential. The retrograding upper ridge will allow stronger mid-level flow to spread into the Southern Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. This would favor potential for more organized storm structures and defined storm motions. While heavy rainfall potential will remain a concern, there may develop a more favored corridor and time frame with later forecasts. A stronger wave is consistently shown to influence the region Thursday night into Friday and the forecast will trend above the blended solution for precipitation chances during this time frame. Temperatures will generally be at or below normal through much of the week with potential for seasonably cool readings across portions of NE OK where rain chances are more persistent. Monday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. South wind around 5 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 73. Calm wind. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms likely. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Wednesday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph. Thursday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Thursday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Friday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon. Friday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 86. Calm wind. Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly clear, with a low around 67. Calm wind. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 88.