Big changes next week

(TULSA, Okla.) The main focus continues to be on the big weather changes that will occur next week as we get the first taste of the fall season in the form of a strong but shallow cold front. Labor Day temperatures will be well above normal. This is ahead of a strong cold front that will move into the region late Tuesday and Tuesday night. Much below normal temperatures arrive behind the front by mid-week. Before this front arrives, summer time above average hot and dry weather will prevail. We continued to raise winds and wind gusts above consensus guidance Sunday going into Monday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty in how the pattern will evolve next week. The various medium range models all agree that a closed low will develop from the digging trough over the Rockies early this week. This low will become cutoff as the parent trough lifts out and leaves it behind. A strong and shallow cold front will surge south and then slow as it progresses east and encounters the terrain of west Arkansas. The front will progress across the region Tuesday afternoon and night. Consensus guidance was the most aggressive of all the available guidance in ramping precipitation chances up Tuesday. This forecast will be slower to advance the higher precipitation chances into the area, hedging toward the drier model. Severe potential will be limited due to southeastward push into weaker flow aloft and the tendency for storms to be undercut by the front. A blend of raw model guidance was used to raise the winds a bit behind the front. By Wednesday, much of our area except west Arkansas will be in the colder air. Clouds and precipitation will hold highs back in the 50s for much of E OK, and this will shatter the record low max temperatures for the date. The larger disagreement in the various model data is what happens later in the week. The upper low should move east/northeast across the central part of the country, but there is model disagreement in where it will track and how fast this will occur. There is no confidence in varying from consensus guidance, ending precipitation chances by Thursday night. Below average temperatures will prevail through the end of the week. Labor Day Sunny, with a high near 94. Heat index values as high as 100. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 73. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Tuesday Night Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 50. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Wednesday A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Wednesday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 49. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 63. North wind around 10 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 70. North wind around 5 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 73. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning.