Next week starts with windy weather and below normal temps

(TULSA, Okla.) The main forecast concerns on Sunday remain the potential for a few severe storms at night, as well as a period of strong and gusty northerly winds associated with a strong cold frontal passage into the overnight. The much-anticipated cold front sits about a county northwest of the northwestern fringes of the forecast area per surface observations and satellite. Winds behind the front are gusting 40 to 45 mph, and similar gusts can be expected as it moves into northeast and east central Oklahoma. The existing Wind Advisory looks good for now area-wise, although some concern exists that the time of the advisory may need to be moved up an hour or so given how close the front is currently. Regarding the thunderstorm potential, meso analysis continues to indicate a fairly strong cap across much of eastern Oklahoma ahead of the front, largely a result of the persistent low clouds. As such, the convective development should be the result of the front itself, occurring along and north of the surface boundary. However, the cap is much weaker across parts of southwest Missouri and into northwest Arkansas, where the cloud cover had been much lower all day, and there is at least some possibility of some warm sector development in this region prior to the front’s arrival. The more robust convection is likely to occur later Sunday evening across parts of southeast Oklahoma and into west central Arkansas, where instability is highest. The progressive nature of the front will significantly minimize the tornado potential, favoring large hail as the main threat and damaging winds secondarily. Although locally high rainfall amounts will likely occur, the movement of the front should also serve to minimize the flood potential. Expect dry weather areawide by sunrise Monday. Wind gusts should begin to diminish after midnight. Much cooler weather will follow the front for Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures rebounding to near normal Wednesday ahead of another cold front. Then it’s back to below normal temperatures Thursday and Friday. Warmer temperatures and low thunderstorm chances will make a return next weekend as a storm system affects the area. Monday Sunny, with a high near 69. North wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 46. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 70. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 52. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 82. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Night Clear, with a low around 54. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph after midnight. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 71. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 46. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Friday Sunny, with a high near 68. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 50. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 55. South wind around 5 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Calm wind becoming northeast around 5 mph in the afternoon.