Winds and fire danger to increase Monday

(TULSA, Okla.) Models continue to show the next cold front moving through the area Sunday night and clearing the vast majority of the area by sunrise Monday. Temperatures are predicted to be lower given drier and cooler air expected behind the front. Winds will also greatly increase along and behind the front Sunday night into Monday morning. Gusty winds and low humidities will raise fire weather concerns behind the front on Monday, aided by the recent above average warmth and dry conditions. Gusts over 30 miles per hour at times seems reasonable. Winds will continue to gradually decrease through the day as the front pushes further away from the area and a surface high pressure build moves in. Temperatures will then warm up through mid week with highs once again in the mid to upper 80s by Wednesday. Wednesday’s warm temperatures will be driven by gusty south-southwesterly to southwesterly winds providing at least a partial downslope component to the wind. This set up tends to favor a drying and warming wind which generally leads to temps above to well above normal and dry conditions. As a result of these warmer temperatures, gusty winds, and overall drier air (in the 35 to 40% range for many), the fire danger will at least be limited for Wednesday with locally elevated conditions likely. Another cold front moves into the area Thursday with gusty winds yet again a concern as the front approaches and passes. The biggest question may be if we see precipitation and the answer is likely still no. We have opted to keep the forecast dry to keep with what the general model consensus has been over the past couple of days thanks to dry air in place but trends will continue to be monitored. Next weekend is expected to exhibit a slow warm up before another cold front moves into the area Sunday into Monday. Precipitation chances still appear to be low with this front thanks again to relatively meager moisture to work with. Monday Sunny, with a high near 77. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 50. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 80. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 58. South wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 87. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 60. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming east after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 71. North wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45. North wind 5 to 15 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 66. North wind around 5 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 48. South wind around 5 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 71. South wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.