Week to start with frost, then big warm up expected

(TULSA, Okla.) A weak cold front pushed through the region early Sunday morning. The surface high pressure center is near Wichita, so winds have backed off quickly behind it. With the surface high settling overhead Sunday night, clear skies and light winds will allow for frost and freeze conditions into early Monday. Since most of the area has not had a hard freeze (27F or colder) yet, and we’re still in the defined growing season (thru Nov 21), frost/freeze headlines were issued. A Frost Advisory is in effect for Sebastian, Choctaw, Tulsa, Wagoner, Muskogee and Sequoyah counties from 9 pm Sunday evening to 8 am Monday. Sensitive outdoor plants may be damaged if left unprotected from the cold. The first week of November will feature warmer than average quiet weather. The upper flow pattern will deamplify over the continental United States, and the stronger northern branch of the westerlies will retreat north. Guidance remains on the cool end under full sun and will thus continue to trend highs toward the warmer side on Monday and Tuesday. Winds were also raised Monday through Wednesday. A wave in the weaker southern stream will slide across midweek, but will not have moisture to work with so no precipitation is expected. Focus then shifts toward next weekend. A deep trough is forecast to dig over the western continental US late this week and is forecast by the models to shift east across the country next weekend into early next week. An associated cold front will sweep across the region, but the timing is still uncertain. Blended model guidance is on the cold side of the spread over the weekend. Saturday should be warm ahead of the front so we’re leaning toward warmer. We’re going with warmer for Sunday given the uncertainty. Best chances for showers and possibly some storms will be next Sunday night and beyond. Monday Patchy frost between 7am and 9am. Otherwise, sunny, with a high near 67. Light south wind increasing to 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 42. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 74. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind around 10 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 53. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 73. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. South wind around 5 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 74. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. South wind around 10 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 73. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. South wind around 10 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. South wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.