Showers and scattered storms Tuesday

(TULSA, Okla.) A surface ridge will build into the area overnight and, coupled with clear skies and residual low-level moisture, will result in the potential for fog development, especially across far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas including the lower Arkansas River Valley. Clear skies are expected to be short-lived across the western part of the County Warning Area as high-level clouds begins to spread east in advance of the next storm system. For this reason, we have limited mention of patchy fog to areas outlined above where the footprint of recent rainfall also exists. Some spots across northwest Arkansas could drop to near freezing by daybreak resulting in some patchy freezing fog, as well. The upper flow continues to amplify on Monday as a trough now off the coast of the Pacific Northwest digs into the Great Basin. With the cool high pressure sliding east and the thickening and increasing clouds during the day afternoon, temperatures are expected to remain in the 50s. Warm advection, however, will be underway into Tuesday as southerly flow strengthens with the development of a strong lee cyclone advancing into the High Plains of Colorado and Kansas. This will help overnight lows remain mild and bring the return of low-level moisture initially to western Oklahoma early in the day Tuesday. A strong low-level jet will be continuing through the day, bringing gusty south winds to eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas and dewpoints into the 50s eastward with time. By early afternoon Tuesday, expect large scale lift from the approaching system to generate scattered to numerous showers across much of northeast Oklahoma. Instability will be somewhat limited with continued cloud cover but steepening lapse rates with the approaching storm system will be enough to create instability sufficient for a few thunderstorms. Coverage is expected to increase late in the afternoon into the evening as a Pacific front pushes through the area. Additional lift associated with the front and sufficient moisture ahead of it should be enough for a limited severe weather threat as the activity moves into far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. The system is expected to clear the area by Wednesday morning with high pressure once again building into the area along with clearing skies. Following a cloudy and moist day Tuesday, highs will fall back into the 50s again Wednesday with a steady west to northwest breeze. Thanksgiving Day will be another day of transition as the next storm system begins to move into the Rockies. A lead shortwave may bring some mid and high-level moisture in advance but Thursday is expected to remain dry. The potential for late week and weekend showers and storms remains somewhat uncertain. Medium range guidance diverges on the speed of the next system, with some of the ensemble guidance moving the trough quickly across the southern Plains and with the remaining members slowing the southern end of the trough and potentially cutting off an upper low across the region. We have maintained a middle ground approach with warm advection showers returning by Friday morning and continuing through the weekend. Highest precipitation chances during this time and the mention of storms will be across the southeast half of the area into west-central Arkansas closest to the return of deeper moisture and instability. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Light southeast wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 62. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Tuesday Night Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 42. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 56. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 37. Calm wind becoming southeast around 5 mph after midnight. Thanksgiving Day Sunny, with a high near 63. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of showers after midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 46. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming west after midnight. Friday A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 58. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 38. North wind around 10 mph. Saturday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. North wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 55. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.