Rain/snow mix possible midweek

(TULSA, Okla.) The last of the clouds should clear northwest Arkansas by midnight as strong subsidence occurs on the back side of the departing system. Winds remained strong Sunday evening with occasional gusts at or above 30 mph due to a strong isallobaric gradient across the southeast quarter of Oklahoma. Winds will gradually lower as the gradient relaxes but with the center of the surface ridge forecast to build down the eastern slopes of the Rockies overnight and continued 925 mb flow in excess of 30 kt, expect sustained winds speeds to remain closer to 10 kt. With clear skies overhead and the cold air advection, overnight lows will drop into the 20s area-wide. The cold front through northeast Oklahoma will bring notably cooler temperatures to the region with below normal temperatures Sunday night through Monday night. Flow across the continental United States is forecast to become highly amplified with a multi-centered low pressure system evolving across the High Plain by early Wednesday. The consolidated mid level low is forecast to track in vicinity of the forecast area Wednesday night through Thursday. Moisture return ahead of this system combined with strengthening forcing will yield increasing rain chances Wednesday, with precipitation likely tapering off from southwest to northeast Wednesday night into Thursday. Precipitation type will remain all rain Wednesday with a low potential for a rain snow mix Wednesday night before it ends. Temperatures within the lowest levels remain the largest uncertainty regarding precipitation type as profiles within the passing trough axis will be sufficiently cold for snow. Trends in the latest operational model runs have remained consistent or trended slightly warmer with low level temps. Furthermore, recent model probabilities suggest very low chances for surface temperatures below freezing by Thursday morning. Beyond Thursday region remains in dry northwesterly flow aloft and temperatures are likely to moderate to nearer seasonal normals by late week into next weekend. Monday Sunny, with a high near 47. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 27. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 56. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 32. South wind around 5 mph. Wednesday A 50 percent chance of showers, mainly after noon. Partly sunny, with a high near 47. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Wednesday Night A chance of rain before midnight, then a slight chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 26. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 46. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 28. West wind around 5 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 52. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 30. West wind around 5 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 55. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.