Warming trend before cold front Wednesday

(TULSA, Okla.) We will continue to see light winds below 10kts on Monday, and mostly clear skies with passing high clouds here and there. The main forecast challenges continue to revolve around Wednesday’s cold frontal passage, with fire weather remaining the impact with the highest level of certainty. An upper level disturbance is currently pushing through the eastern half of the forecast area, with little in the way of cloud cover associated with it given how dry things are at the moment. Westerly low-level flow has returned with the disturbance, leading to warm, above normal temperatures areawide this afternoon. The warmer weather will continue into Monday and Tuesday, with strong southerly flow returning ahead of the approaching cold front Wednesday. Forecast highs for Monday and Tuesday continue to be closer to the high side of guidance than the lower values given the ample sun and favorable wind direction. Southerly winds gusting 30 to 35 mph on Tuesday will lead to the increased fire spread potential, even though minimum humidity continues to look to be in the 30 to 40 percent range. Forecast uncertainty continues to increase quite a bit Wednesday and persist through the rest of the forecast. Things have trended toward and earlier frontal passage on Wednesday, most likely midday, which will lead to high bust potential for high temperatures that day. The well-developed closed upper low scenario painted by some members of the medium range model suite the last couple of days looks less likely, reinforcing the continued all liquid precipitation forecast and lack of mentionable wraparound precipitation potential. Portions of far eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas remain favored for showers Wednesday and perhaps into Wednesday evening before the coldest air moves in. Beginning Friday, afternoon temperatures become the main source of uncertainty, with little consistency in the timing and position of various surface features. However, ensemble low level temperature anomalies indicate a positive trend Saturday and Sunday, with some signs of this beginning Friday. Forecast highs reflect values a few degrees above model estimations but would not be surprised if a further increase becomes necessary in the coming days. Monday Sunny, with a high near 63. West wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 37. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 65. South wind 5 to 10 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 56. Southwest wind 15 to 20 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 42. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 25. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Christmas Day Sunny, with a high near 49. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 30. South wind around 5 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 54. South wind 5 to 10 mph.