Heavy rainfall potential by midweek, then maybe more snow

(TULSA, Okla.) A cold front worked its way through the area Sunday, with a noticeable cooldown. Monday is expected to be much cooler in its wake, and will largely be a dry day before the next trough digs across the desert southwest and into the central US with an impact on our weather Tuesday and Wednesday. There is a chance for showers to move into the area as early as late Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Some freezing rain along and near the OK/KS border is possible. At the moment, confidence is low but opted to include a small area of rain/snow with a potential of ice pellets across far northern Osage and Washington (OK) counties. Any wintry precipitation amounts would be minimal and limited to elevated surfaces given that ground and road temperatures will be warm from the above normal warmth we have enjoyed the past few days. The surface low is expected to track north of the area Tuesday into Wednesday leaving us in the warm sector as a cold front swings through. Locally heavy rainfall continues to be a concern along with the potential for some isolated thunderstorms Tuesday night into Wednesday as a small/thin ribbon of weak convective available potential energy moves in just ahead of the passing front. Strong storms are not expected. Localized flooding of low-lying areas and areas prone to flooding will be possible but this threat could be tempered due to the extended period of dry weather we have had. Until the front passes, temperatures will remain steady or fall slowly through the night Tuesday into Wednesday morning thanks to low level warm air advection and an abundance of cloud cover. As mentioned before temperatures are expected to fall through the day Wednesday in the wake of the passing cold front with minimal rises in temperature expected for Wednesday afternoon with shower activity continuing. Models suggest shower activity will linger into the evening hours Wednesday which means a transition to wintry precipitation is likely for parts of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as temperature cool below freezing with minimal accumulations possible at this time. Models are still in flux as to precipitation type and amounts Wednesday evening through Friday morning. Right now, it appears to be mixed precipitation with sleet and freezing rain possible. Snow amounts will obviously be impacted based on the amount of sleet and freezing rain (or even just rain) that falls. We have opted to enhance ice totals across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas closer to the track of the upper low and upped snowfall totals across the area with the most notable increase in snow totals across northeast Oklahoma mainly Thursday evening and overnight as the atmospheric column cools below freezing. There are still many uncertainties with this forecast such as where ice could fall/accumulate and how much snow we could ultimately see across the area thus this forecast will be refined over the next couple of days. The proceeding weekend looks to be dry with a warm up expected through Sunday. 7-DAY FORECAST Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 45. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Monday Night A 50 percent chance of rain after 1am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 37. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Tuesday A chance of rain before 7am, then a chance of showers after 7am. Cloudy, with a high near 56. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Tuesday Night Showers likely, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Steady temperature around 52. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph becoming southwest after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 7am, then periods of rain, mainly between 7am and 1pm. Temperature falling to around 40 by 1pm. West wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Wednesday Night A chance of rain before 7pm, then a chance of snow between 7pm and 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Thursday A slight chance of snow and sleet between 7am and 1pm, then a chance of rain, snow, and sleet. Partly sunny, with a high near 37. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Thursday Night A chance of rain, snow, and sleet before 7pm, then a chance of snow and sleet between 7pm and 1am, then a chance of snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. New Year's Day A 30 percent chance of snow before 7am. Partly sunny, with a high near 44. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 28. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Northwest wind around 5 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 30. South wind around 5 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 50. South wind 5 to 10 mph.