Warm up, then rain returns with chance for wintry mix

(TULSA, Okla.) An upper level wave continued to quickly move along the Oklahoma / Kansas border Sunday afternoon, with little impact on sensible weather aside from some mid and high clouds. These clouds should clear the area by evening with mostly clear skies and light winds again leading to some freezing fog potential tonight.

The main uncertainties with fog will be considerably larger temperature /dew point spreads to start the evening versus Saturday, and the possibility of more high clouds moving in from the west later Sunday night. Models remain quite bullish on widespread fog development, but proved to be overdone Sunday morning and given that potential may be even lower across our area Sunday night. We have opted to downplay this and stay with the idea of patchy or areas of freezing fog with no advisory planned at this time. Any fog that develops Sunday night should quickly dissipate. Warmer temperatures are expected the next couple of days. South winds will increase Tuesday, and perhaps result in some uptick in fire weather danger by then, though relative humidity levels should remain well above critical. Moisture will begin to surge north Tuesday night into Wednesday in advance of an approaching upper low. Rain chances return during the day Wednesday with a low chance of thunder near the Red River. The closed system will continue to influence the weather into Thursday with a brief window of opportunity for a winter mix into Thursday morning. Seasonable temperatures and dry weather will prevail in the wake of this system into next weekend. There is potential for another upper low to move into the southern plains by about Sunday, but for right now have opted to keep the forecast dry as the main impacts may stay to our south. Monday Patchy freezing fog before 9am. Mostly cloudy through mid-morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 54. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 28. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 58. Light southeast wind becoming south 10 to 15 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 41. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday A 40 percent chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Wednesday Night A 20 percent chance of showers before midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 46. North wind around 10 mph. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 44. North wind around 5 mph. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind around 5 mph. Saturday Partly sunny, with a high near 44. North wind around 5 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 29. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Sunday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42. North wind 5 to 10 mph.