Toasty warm-up on deck for next week

(TULSA, Okla.) There is winter weather potential Sunday night with an upper system passing to our south as the main item of mention. How quickly we will warm up later this week is also worth mention. Toward the end of the week, uncertainty increases regarding the upper pattern evolution, but confidence is increasing toward a faster front on Thursday. The upper low that moved across Texas Sunday will gradually lift into the ArkLaTex, while gradually weakening. While the bulk of the moisture with this system will stay well to the south and east, there are some hints of very light liquid precipitation close to the upper low track across southeast Oklahoma late Sunday. We will maintain very light and non-impactful snow accumulation down near the Red River. With cloud cover expected to hold on through the night down south, the forecast overnight lows were leaned more toward raw guidance. Across the north, where vis satellite shows potential for clearing, the forecast leans colder. Clouds will clear out Monday as the upper system moves away. With a lingering low-level thermal trough in place, however, we are inclined to stick with the blended guidance despite more sun expected. A pronounced warming trend will begin Tuesday and will peak Wednesday and Thursday ahead of the next front. The highest confidence of exceeding blended guidance is Wednesday, with pronounced expansion of the low-level thermal ridge shown in a downslope flow pattern. It will be toasty ahead of Thursday’s front, but models have been speeding its southward progress. We will go with blended guidance for highs, knowing that some, especially across the south, could get warmer than forecast. There is disagreement between models concerning the evolution of the upper flow pattern late this week and into the weekend. For now, given higher uncertainty we will stick with in-between blended guidance and also keep things dry. A quiet forecast is expected out to 10 days with ridging hanging on over the west and a dry northwest flow over the Plains. Monday Sunny, with a high near 47. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph. Monday Night Clear, with a low around 28. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Tuesday Sunny, with a high near 55. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 31. Southwest wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Sunny, with a high near 61. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 38. Southwest wind around 10 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. South wind around 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 37. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 49. Northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 32. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 33. South wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 48. North wind 5 to 10 mph.