Next week starts with hot fire danger, then severe weather chances

(TULSA, Okla.) Fire weather concerns ramp back up Monday and Tuesday ahead of the next incoming storm system. This storm system will then bring us chances for storms (some of which could be severe) Tuesday night and Wednesday across parts of the area. It then looks like we will then dry out for the second half of the work week and into the first half of the weekend. Despite dew points well into the 50s Monday and Tuesday, temperatures are expected to be rather warm (generally in the mid to upper 70s) which will tend to reduce relative humidity values in the 40 to 50% range Monday with slightly higher minimum relative humidity values for Tuesday. The main driving factor for elevated fire weather concerns will be the winds which are forecast to gust between 20 to 30mph Monday with 25 to near 40mph gusts expected Tuesday. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed both of these days with spread rates in the near critical category for parts of NE Oklahoma. A wind advisory may also be needed for Tuesday as well if confidence in 40mph gusts increases in the coming days. Tuesday evening into Wednesday will see our shower and storm chances beginning to increase as the Pacific cold front moves into the area. Ample shear and instability will support the threat for severe storms. The exact details on timing and severity will continue to be hammered out over the next few days. As it stands now, a line of thunderstorms will likely develop along the Pacific front late Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning with these storms moving eastward across our area through the day Wednesday. These storms could exit our NW Arkansas counties by midafternoon with drier, cooler, and windy conditions behind the front. The main severe threats would be damaging wind gusts and large hail. Thursday will be quiet behind the front. Friday will likely be quiet also, though one model continues to stall and then lift the front north to near the Red River before shoving it back south again. Another indicates a stronger southward push to the front as it is faster with a trailing wave in the NW flow on the backside of the departing upper low. As it stands now, there is still considerable uncertainty, thus opted to keep the forecast dry through Saturday. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. South wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Tuesday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 71. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 75. West wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Thursday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 78. West wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 51. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind around 10 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 54. East wind around 10 mph. Sunday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.