Stormy week ahead

(TULSA, Okla.) Gusty southerly winds will continue through Tuesday, which will allow temperatures to warm to well above normal, especially Monday, with highs in the 80s for the next couple of days. 

A Wind Advisory could be needed Monday for portions of northeast Oklahoma as winds could gust to near and above 40 mph. Gusts over 30 mph will be common across most of the forecast area. 

Clouds will begin to increase Monday afternoon ahead of the next system set to affect the area much of the latter half of the work week. 

This system will begin to approach on Tuesday as a large upper low digs down into the Desert Southwest and slowly progresses east over the rest of the week. It will lead to several rounds of showers and thunderstorms across much of the area, especially on Wednesday. The severe weather risk appears rather minimal for much of our forecast area with a chance for some severe storms Tuesday evening and night across mainly the western parts of the county warning area. Large hail and damaging wind gusts will be the main threats with the stronger storms.

A front will begin to slowly drift southeastward throughout the day on Wednesday, while the upper low remain positioned to our southwest over the Big Bend area of Texas. This will serve as the main axis of continued shower and thunderstorm development for much of the day Wednesday. Record precipitable water values across the region will lead to heavy rainfall, particularly southeast of I-44 where 2-4 inches of rain will be possible on Wednesday with locally higher amounts possible in areas of stronger thunderstorm development. 

Instability will remain limited, but a few severe storms will be possible across southeast Oklahoma where the greatest instability will reside. Low level shear will be quite strong over this area, making tornadoes possible on Wednesday across far southeast Oklahoma. The overall severe threat will remain limited though due to lack of any strong instability in our area.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will remain likely into Thursday, focusing more across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas as the front continues to drift south. Heavy rain and flooding concerns will increase as the continued rounds of precipitation spread over the area. 

The latest data has trended for the wave to be a little more progressive than previous runs, meaning precipitation should end from west to east Thursday night into Friday as the upper low moves east. Seasonable and dry conditions will follow the passage of this system into next weekend before another system affects portions of the Plains early next week.

Monday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 84. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Tuesday

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 79. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 65. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Wednesday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59. Southeast wind around 10 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 71. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 53. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Northeast wind around 10 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 53. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south after midnight.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 78. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 57. South wind around 10 mph.

Sunday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. South wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.