Storm chances Monday then sunny weather ahead ☀️

(TULSA, Okla.) A mid-level low spinning over extreme southeast Oklahoma Sunday afternoon will continue to bring scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to portions of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas through the evening hours.

A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible very late Sunday night and into Monday morning across northeast Oklahoma thanks to remnants of an expected thunderstorm complex developing across western Kansas. This decaying complex will leave an outflow boundary across southeast Kansas/northeast Oklahoma, which will help enhance a cold front that is set to move into eastern Oklahoma Monday. 

Additional showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Monday afternoon into Monday evening and continue into the overnight hours. The airmass across the area is expected to becoming increasingly unstable Monday afternoon/evening. Surface dew points are forecast to climb into the mid 60s to lower 70s in advance of the cold front.

Thunderstorms are expected to have a difficult time developing along the front until late afternoon and evening with a strong cap in place across the area. However, a mid-level shortwave set to move into the Southern Plains by Monday evening may provide enough lift and cooling to overcome the cap. This could allow a few surface based storms to develop in the vicinity of the cold front. These storms would likely be severe with more than adequate instability and deep layer shear available.

These storms would be capable of producing large hail, damaging winds and possibly a tornado. However, most storms that develop will occur behind the front and are not expected to be surface based. These storms will pose more of a large hail and wind threat.

The severe threat will diminish in the early morning Tuesday. However, the potential for showers will linger in Tuesday afternoon as the mid-level shortwave exits the area.

Dry weather is forecast for the remainder of the work week even with a weak cold front moving through on Thursday. The next chance of showers and storms will come over the weekend as another storm system affects the region.

Monday

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming mostly sunny, with a high near 82. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon.

Monday Night

Showers and thunderstorms likely before 1am, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 56. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday

A 40 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 66. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 47. North wind 5 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 72. North wind around 5 mph becoming east in the afternoon.

Wednesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 52. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight.

Thursday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 52. North wind around 5 mph becoming southeast after midnight.

Friday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 75. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.