Get ready for widespread rainfall

(TULSA, Okla.) Heavy rain and flooding continue to be the main concern and primary focus of the forecast for the next seven days, with the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame looking most susceptible to more widespread impacts. A Flood Watch has not been issued yet but will likely be needed in the next day or so for at least a portion of the area. Also expect that river flood warnings will be needed in the next couple of days, with the expected rainfall amounts likely to lead to mainstem river flooding later this coming week.

Currently, a large area of showers with embedded thunderstorms is moving slowly to the northeast into eastern Oklahoma, eventually moving into western Arkansas Sunday evening. Heavy downpours could occur in a few areas west of Highway 75, with localized impacts possible in urban and other areas susceptible to higher water as evidenced by flooding ongoing in the Oklahoma City metro. However for the remainder of the area, near term solutions are fairly consistent in weakening the intensity and rainfall rates of this activity as it moves eastward, with lower moisture and less than favorable moisture transport.

Attention then turns to the expected thunderstorm complex that should form in the High Plains Sunday evening, moving toward the area overnight in a decaying state. Parts of southeast Oklahoma should be most affected Monday morning. Once this clears the area, much of Monday should be dry given the likelihood of stabilized air behind it. This is especially true if outflow boundaries from this complex push south of the Red River. The location of these boundaries will be key to determining where the greatest flooding threat will set up for Tuesday.

Shower and thunderstorm chances increase again late Monday night and into Tuesday as the main upper level system finally moves into the Plains and a fast moving disturbance moves northeastward across the area. A similar situation will occur Tuesday night and into Wednesday. At this time, it looks like the heaviest rainfall will occur across southeast Oklahoma with both rounds, as persistent, well above normal precipitable water values move into

areas south of I-40 by Tuesday. The cumulative effects of repeated rounds of rain, especially heavy rain, will worsen the situation with time.

On the severe weather front, widespread, organized severe thunderstorms do not appear likely through this period this far east, but isolated strong to severe storms will remain possible through the middle of the week. It IS May, after all. 

Rain chances taper off some toward the end of next week and into next weekend but do not end completely, as troughing sets up in the western United States and southwest flow persists across the region.

Monday

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 77. South wind 5 to 10 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Monday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Low around 64. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. High near 76. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

Tuesday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 64. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 1pm, then showers and thunderstorms likely after 1pm. High near 77. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Wednesday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 66. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

Thursday

Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 75. Southeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 10 mph.

Friday

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind 10 to 15 mph.

Saturday

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 81. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind around 10 mph.

Sunday

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 81. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.