Heavy rainfall possible Monday into Tuesday

(TULSA, Okla.) Heavy rain and flood potential over the next couple days is the main concern in this forecast.

The initial wave of precipitation, with isolated thunder, is advancing east across Kansas/northern Oklahoma on the nose of mid-level isentropic lift. This activity is forecast to gradually fade as it heads east. It will leave some low precipitation chances to the north and west of Tulsa Sunday evening. Our focus shifts back west with storms on the High Plains eventually growing into a large thunderstorm complex overnight. The remnants of this mesoscale convective system will track into our area Monday. 

As we head into Monday night, models suggest that low pressure aloft will slide into the region, probably convectively enhanced by the previous night’s MCS, and could bring swaths of locally heavy rainfall. Some models show northeast Oklahoma, others southeast.

Either way, deep layer moisture will be on the increase by this time, with precipitable water of 1.5 to 1.75 inches. While this is not the caliber of moisture we saw late last week, heavy rain rates are still possible. Given some uncertainty with location of heavier rainfall and that we’re still more than 24 hours out, will hold off on any flood headlines for now.

Rain/storm chances decrease by the middle to latter part of the week as the upper trough/low pressure slide east of the region. Another weak low pressure system could bring back better rain/storm chances by next weekend. Below average cool weather will continue into the early part of next week, though humidity is increasing. More sun mid to late week will lead to warmer, and more typical, early June temperatures.

Memorial Day

A slight chance of showers, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. High near 71. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Monday Night

Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 61. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Tuesday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Tuesday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 60. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 76. Northwest wind around 5 mph.

Wednesday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 58. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday

A slight chance of showers, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 62. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 83. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 82. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.