Showers and storms to continue into next week

(TULSA, Okla.) As expected, shower and thunderstorm coverage has decreased dramatically with the loss of daytime heating, with only a few small disorganized clusters remaining across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. How much additional shower and thunderstorm activity develops overnight remains uncertain, but overall, the axis with the best potential, aligned with the remnant outflow boundary, will shift northward across northeast Oklahoma through the night. 

More isolated activity can be expected south of this axis. Much of the current short term model data point toward a lull in the coverage and intensity from late Sunday evening and past midnight, with some increase toward daybreak. The more widespread development should hold off until the daytime Monday. 

Given how much rain northeast Oklahoma has seen in the past couple of days and how little it would take for flooding to redevelop, we will leave the Flash Flood Watch alone, although the current thinking is that widespread flooding potential has likely ended in the near term. The Flash Flood Watch is in effect until Monday at 7:00 a.m. Monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action should Flash Flood Warnings be issued.

The trend over the next few days will be towards lesser coverage of showers and storms, and lesser potential for widespread heavy rainfall amounts. The upper trough just to our west will retrograde

west as an upper ridge to our east also retrogrades west. Deep moisture will remain in place though, so scattered showers and storms will continue, with locally heavy rainfall possible.

By late week, a significant upper trough will develop to our east, which should drive a weak cold front south through the area. This should bring an end to the rain chances by next weekend.

Temperatures have overachieved in many places the past couple days, and with rain coverage lessening over the next few days, this trend is likely to continue. As a result, we have raised high temperatures above the National Blend of Models forecast most days.

Monday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a half and three quarters of an inch possible.

Monday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Tuesday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 87. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Tuesday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Wednesday

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 88. South wind around 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Wednesday Night

A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Thursday

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 86. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thursday Night

A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. East wind around 5 mph becoming north after midnight.

Friday

A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 87. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday

Mostly sunny, with a high near 87. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 65. East wind 5 to 10 mph.

Independence Day

Sunny, with a high near 88. East wind 5 to 10 mph.