Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Monday

(TULSA, Okla.) Height falls associated with the approaching trough will mark a pattern change with the current mid-level weakness and plume of deeper moisture being shunted eastward Monday. A corridor of mid-level moisture ahead of the approaching trough may yield high based light precipitation across northeast Oklahoma late Sunday night into Monday morning. Otherwise, breezy and unseasonably warm conditions will prevail by Monday afternoon, which will raise fire weather concerns across portions of northeast Oklahoma.

The cold front will have moved into northeast Oklahoma by late Monday afternoon and isolated storms are likely to develop along the immediate frontal boundary from eastern Kansas southward into northeast Oklahoma. The initial storms will pose a risk of locally damaging winds and possibly large hail however the window for severe storms will likely remain brief as the cold front moves steadily eastward with a tendency more elevated convection through the evening. The upper trough is shown to amplify across the region with a period of stronger post frontal forcing likely expanding precipitation coverage Monday night into Tuesday morning before ending from west to east by Tuesday afternoon.

Post frontal temperatures will noticeably cooler along with a much drier airmass. A few days of below normal temperatures are expected before warming to near to above normal by late week into the weekend. Overnight lows will remain seasonably cool as the dry low levels remain in place. There remains some uncertainty regarding timing of reinforcing cold fronts for late week, however no appreciable weather impacts are expected given the lack of moisture and temperatures are likely to trend nearer seasonal normals.

Monday

A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. Mostly sunny and hot, with a high near 100. Heat index values as high as 103. South wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Monday Night

A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 64. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.

Tuesday

A 20 percent chance of showers before 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night

Clear, with a low around 53. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday

Sunny, with a high near 81. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Wednesday Night

Clear, with a low around 53. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Thursday

Sunny, with a high near 83. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph in the morning.

Thursday Night

Clear, with a low around 58. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 89. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 59. Southeast wind around 5 mph.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 88. East wind around 5 mph becoming south in the morning.

Saturday Night

Clear, with a low around 60. South wind around 5 mph.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 91. South wind 5 to 10 mph.