Fire weather concerns increase Tuesday

(TULSA, Okla.) The cold front pushed its way through all of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas early Sunday afternoon, with much drier air moving into the area behind it. The clearing line nudged south of the Kansas border, and it is expected that much of the area will see clear skies by late Sunday evening. The gusty northerly winds will subside some from north to south overnight as surface high pressure moves in, which should allow for a few areas to see lows below freezing.

Surface high pressure will be in place Monday morning. Notable west to southwesterly winds will develop by Monday afternoon across parts of northeast Oklahoma, as the surface ridge axis slides into southeastern parts of the forecast area. 

Fire weather will be the main concern moving into Tuesday, focused across parts of northeast Oklahoma along and west of Highway 75. Moisture will be slow to return, southerly winds will be stronger and gustier, and afternoon highs will reach above normal levels - all conditions favorable for a rapid-fire spread threat. Expect winds to gust up to 30 mph at times and minimum humidity to drop to near 30 percent. Winds will remain strong and gusty into Wednesday, but increased moisture should preclude a heightened fire weather threat.

Wednesday and Wednesday night, a strong cold front will move through the region, with the main weather concern being the potential for widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms leading to locally heavy rainfall. 

Ahead of the front, isolated showers may begin to develop as soon as Wednesday afternoon, primarily across southeast Oklahoma and western Arkansas, within the low to mid-level wind maxima and associated moisture plume. More widespread showers will develop along the front overnight, with a coverage decrease into Thanksgiving Day from northwest to southeast as the front exits the region. Forecast precipitable water values remain at well above normal levels, which should lead to some locally heavy rainfall totals despite the progressive nature of the front. 

Thanksgiving Day looks to be the chilliest of the upcoming seven days, with parts of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas struggling to make it out of the 40s in the afternoon. A fairly quick warmup will ensue Friday, continuing into the weekend. Expect highs to be near to just above normal next weekend.

Monday

Sunny, with a high near 60. Light and variable wind becoming southwest 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Monday Night

Clear, with a low around 39. South wind around 5 mph.

Tuesday

Sunny, with a high near 66. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.

Tuesday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy, with a high near 67. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.

Wednesday Night

Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Cloudy, with a low around 39. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Thanksgiving Day

Partly sunny, with a high near 49. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Thursday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 30. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening.

Friday

Sunny, with a high near 56. Light south wind increasing to 5 to 10 mph in the morning.

Friday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 37. South wind 5 to 10 mph.

Saturday

Sunny, with a high near 62. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon.

Saturday Night

Mostly clear, with a low around 37. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm.

Sunday

Sunny, with a high near 62. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the morning.