Weather across America

Published: 05/09/2022, 2:03 AM

(NATIONAL) The major weather story on Monday will be the continued critical fire weather concerns in the Four Corners region with extreme threats in New Mexico. Also, the West will remain inclement and cool, heat builds in the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley and some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from Iowa into parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Broad upper troughing will prevail across the western and central U.S., with an embedded mid-level impulse ejecting into the northern Plains and a second, less pronounced mid-level impulse impinging on the Rockies tomorrow/Monday. The approach of this second impulse will encourage surface low development across the central/southern High Plains, supporting another dangerous day of dry/windy conditions conducive to rapid wildfire spread across the Southwest/southern High Plains.

Southwest into the southern High Plains, boundary-layer mixing and gradient flow will encourage the development of widespread 20+ mph sustained west-southwesterly surface winds and 10-15 percent RH across much of the Southwest into the southern High Plains Monday, warranting both the maintenance and expansion of Elevated/Critical highlights.

Guidance consensus also depicts a corridor of 25+ mph sustained winds (with higher gusts) overlapping with 10 percent RH (perhaps locally lower in spots) and anomalously dry fuels, promoting dangerous conditions supporting extreme fire behavior. Extremely Critical highlights were introduced where the most volatile surface meteorological conditions and receptive fuels will coincide for at least a few hours Monday afternoon.


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