Severe storms, flooding Monday

(TULSA, Okla.) Monday will bring another threat for severe thunderstorms and flooding to parts of eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas, after a lull in the activity on Sunday. There is the potential for high end severe weather, including strong tornadoes, in parts of eastern Oklahoma. In addition, locally heavy rainfall and flooding could occur, with areas to the northwest of I-44 most susceptible. Keep track of the latest forecasts and make sure you have a safety plan in place. Timing for the potential for significant severe weather is late Monday afternoon into Monday evening. A potent/highly amplified upper level trough will move out of the desert southwest on Monday, lifting northeast into the central plains on Tuesday. As the system approaches, a warm front will lift into northeast Oklahoma by late afternoon with moderate/high instability developing along and south of boundary. If storms develop, they will have the potential for a few supercells and strong long track tornadoes. The area with the greatest severe threat is expected to be near Tulsa and to the west, especially across Creek, Pawnee and Osage counties. Heavier axis of rainfall is still expected across south-central/southeast Kansas which would impact the Arkansas River and Neosho at Commerce for next week. Storms over northeast Oklahoma should weaken late Monday evening and refocus further west along frontal boundary across western Oklahoma early Tuesday morning. Another line of strong to severe thunderstorms will likely sweep through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the day Tuesday as the main upper trough lifts northeast into the central plains. The atmosphere along/east of the line will again support the threat for damaging down burst winds and brief tornadoes, mainly along and east of highway 75 where instability will be the highest. They should remain fairly progressive therefore widespread rainfall amounts only around an inch are expected. Moisture will again surge back north through the area on Wednesday with low chance pops, mainly across far northeast Oklahoma.