Limited thunderstorm chances on the return

(TULSA, Okla.) A warming trend is anticipated through the upcoming work week. Meanwhile, weak southerly flow will maintain and/or increase low level moisture values. Heat index values will likely be the main story through much of this week with locations across eastern Oklahoma and west central Arkansas more likely to see advisory criteria as we get into Wednesday and Thursday. Thunderstorm activity developing to our north and northwest Monday and Tuesday can’t be completely dismissed as it tries to make it into northern Oklahoma each following morning. Storm chances have been kept out of the forecast for now as the warm advection pattern doesn’t look as strong as what we saw last week and the overall amount of convection looks less given a weaker boundary. This situation looks to change late in the week at least for portions of northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as the ridge flattens a bit allowing a series of weak impulses and a stronger front to work south with time. Overall the best rain chances remain Thursday night into Saturday. Thicker cloud cover associated with the passing disturbances and more widespread showers and storms should help knock temperatures back closer to average by Friday but the continued high humidity values and warm starts to days will help keep afternoon heat index values at or above the century mark for much of the area. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph. Monday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 72. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 92. South wind around 5 mph. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 74. Southeast wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 96. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 76. South wind around 5 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 95. South wind around 5 mph. Thursday Night A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph. Friday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 92. South wind around 5 mph. Friday Night A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. South wind around 5 mph. Saturday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 92. South wind around 5 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 74. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm after midnight. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 92. South wind around 5 mph.