Snow forecast early next week

(TULSA, Okla.) Main forecast concerns will be fog into Monday and winter weather potential Tuesday and Tuesday night across portions of the region. With mostly clear skies and radiational cooling we should see areas of fog, some dense, develop across the region mainly along and east of highway 75 Sunday into Monday morning. Areas of far southeast OK down near the Red River will stand the best chance for more widespread, and possibly dense, fog where dewpoints are highest. Now to the big challenge of this forecast. For several days, models have brought a strong wave across the Plains just to our south Tuesday with widespread precipitation expected on the system’s north side, that has never been in question. What has been in question was the amount of cold air the system would have to work with. Models have trended colder behind the back-door front that will be working its way into the region late Monday into Tuesday. As such, this forecast will trend colder at the surface and will have more snow accumulation across NE OK and NW AR. Raw model snow accumulation forecasts suggest that advisory level snow accumulation is possible anywhere north of I-40 Tuesday into Tuesday night. The main question will be the marginal temps near the ground. If it’s a rain/snow mix that would greatly cut the accumulation potential. There is also light icing potential in the terrain of NW AR. Precipitation should come to an end by Wednesday morning as the system moves off to the east. Bottom line, travel impacts from winter weather are possible Tuesday and Tuesday night mainly north of I-40. Temps may struggle to climb on Wednesday with surface ridge overhead and the potential for lingering low clouds/fog and have thus undercut consensus forecast highs. A sharp warmup is expected by the weekend, however. A downslope flow pattern will set up over the Plains, allowing temps to soar. The forecast will go several degrees warmer than consensus guidance next Saturday and Sunday. Would not be surprised if temps hit 70 in a few places during this time. Monday Areas of fog before 9am. Otherwise, partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 59. Light and variable wind becoming northeast 5 to 10 mph in the afternoon. Monday Night A chance of rain after midnight, mixing with snow after 5am. Increasing clouds, with a low around 34. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Tuesday Rain and snow likely, becoming all rain after noon. Cloudy, with a high near 38. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Tuesday Night A slight chance of rain, mixing with snow after 7pm, then gradually ending. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 30. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 44. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Thursday Partly sunny, with a high near 49. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Thursday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 32. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming south after midnight. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 53. South wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 35. West wind around 5 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 60. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 66. West wind around 5 mph.