Storms late Monday into Tuesday, chance of winter weather later next week

(TULSA, Okla.) A broad thermal ridge will allow for temperatures to rise near record levels Monday. Clouds are expected to increase, but temperatures should still warm to around 70 for many areas given stout southerly to southwesterly winds allowing for a downslope component to the wind resulting in compressional heating. The cold front pushes through the area late Monday and clears the County Warning Area by Tuesday afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible along this cold front in eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas. Given favorable dynamics, a few isolated strong storms will be possible across portions of far Southeast Oklahoma. Severe storms are not expected and should remain out of our area to the south and east. There is considerable disagreement among the model suite in regards to wintry precipitation for Wednesday into Thursday of next week. The GFS keeps the majority of the precipitation, likely wintry, across the southern half of the area thanks to a deep digging trough while the ECMWF is a little warmer and farther north allowing for a minimal amount of snow (lots of rain) for much of the area. The latest NAM run is closer to the GFS solution and brings a fairly heavy band of snow along the I-40 corridor. The trough will play a big role in the overall set up. A deeper trough will yield more moisture for the area and the potential for more wintry precipitation. We’ve opted to be conservative at the moment given the considerable spread in the guidance with a broad area of 1 to 2 inches across parts of northeast and north-central Oklahoma. This forecast will be refined over the next few days as more information comes in. A clearer picture should start to come to light by Monday night. Late next week should see drier and milder weather through Saturday before a storm system brings a low chance for precipitation to the area on Sunday. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 69. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph. Monday Night A 20 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a low around 45. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the evening. Tuesday A 40 percent chance of showers. Cloudy, with a temperature falling to around 39 by 5pm. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Night A 50 percent chance of snow after midnight. Cloudy, with a low around 29. North wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Wednesday Snow likely before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 36. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Mostly sunny, with a high near 43. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming southwest in the afternoon. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 33. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming north in the afternoon. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 36. North wind around 5 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 53. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon.