Severe Weather Awareness Week is underway

(TULSA, Okla.) The main forecast concerns will be convective/severe potential Monday, and rain chances Tuesday and Wednesday. As we head into Monday, a front will continue to drop southeast and the warm sector ahead of it will continue to improve. The 60s dewpoints now lifting into southeast TX are likely to make it up into W/SW AR by Monday afternoon. Model soundings suggest that capping may weaken enough by afternoon to allow a few surface based storms to develop on the far eastern fringes of the forecast area to the northeast of a frontal low over W AR. Those storms would have the potential to become severe given strong sheared environment, but severe weather is more likely east of the forecast area toward central AR where storms would have time to mature as they move east. Focus then turns to the southwest CONUS upper low toward the middle of the week. The overall theme of the forecast hasn’t changed since Saturday, though the timing of the upper low track across TX continues to change some. The trend in Sunday’s data is to slow the system down slightly, so while the best rain chances remain down near the Red River, it looks more like Tuesday night into Wednesday as the time of the best chance. Heavy rainfall potential will remain south of the TX border along and south of the upper low track, so from an impact standpoint, not much is expected from this system in our area. Temperature wise, expect above average temps in general. High temps were adjusted some above blended guidance from Tuesday through Thursday with the effects of next week’s system staying mainly to our south. Less cloud across the north should allow highs to get closer to numerical guidance numbers. A cold front will knock temps back a bit by Friday, but should still be above normal. Moisture return gets going by late in the weekend with shower chances returning to the forecast by next Sunday night. Sunday marked the first day of climatological spring, which means it's a perfect first day of Severe Weather Awareness Week, too! Sunday through Saturday, stay alert for severe weather preparedness information from National Weather Service on social media that may just keep you safe this spring. The 2019 severe weather season was one for the record books in OK and AR, both severe weather and flooding-wise. One of the most important severe weather preparedness steps you can take is to know your geography. Find your county and those surrounding it. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 59. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 40. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Calm wind becoming north around 5 mph in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 45. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 66. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. North wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light in the evening. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 70. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Night Clear, with a low around 39. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Friday Sunny, with a high near 62. North wind around 5 mph. Friday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 39. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming south after midnight. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 65. South wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 47. South wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 64. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.