Soggy week ahead for much of Oklahoma

(TULSA, Okla.) Very windy conditions increased the fire danger for portions of northwest AR where values are still relatively low (in the 20 to 30 percent range). A well-established fire, however, was noted across portions of northeastern Muskogee County, but fire conditions at this particular location are expected to improve thanks to increased moisture streaming into the area and expected rainfall Sunday night. As the aforementioned low and short wave move closer, precipitation chances will begin to increase. Rain will continue to spread over eastern OK Sunday evening with flight conditions quickly deteriorating with onset of precipitation. Rain will eventually spread into west AR later Sunday night with similar changes expected. Winds will remain gusty from the south before shifting southwest ahead of a cold front, with scattered showers and a few thunderstorms developing along the front late in the period. The best chances for showers appear to be Monday morning with precipitation coverage decreasing through the day. Instability will be limited with this system with the most notable instability expected to occur just ahead of the cold front as it passes Monday afternoon and evening. This, in turn, will allow for a brief isolated storm or two to develop across portions of east OK and northwest AR. A strong storm can’t be ruled out along the front, but severe weather is not expected. Weak upper level ridging will allow for dry conditions to persist much of the day Tuesday. Persistent orthogonal upper level flow across the Rockies will allow for a leeward low pressure to develop and eject across the central and southern plains Tuesday into Wednesday. This low will allow for a boost in rising motion and moisture return thus an increase in clouds and precipitation is expected. With increased moisture and unseasonably warm temperatures expected, some instability will develop which should result in a few storms developing. The aforementioned low will be associated with a slowing and, eventually, a stalled boundary. There are still some uncertainties in regards to exactly where this boundary will eventually stall. The exact placement of the stalled front will play a big role in the overall rainfall and thunderstorm forecast. Heavy rainfall is expected in the vicinity of the stalled frontal boundary, as a result of expected storm activity, and right now it appears, based on the available guidance, the best location will be over southeast OK and west-central AR. Southeast OK and west-central AR are also where the highest precipitable water values are expected with values of 1 to 1.3 inches forecast. A strong closed upper level low moves in out of the desert southwest by late week which will be the focus for widespread rainfall, potentially heavy, across much of the area. The best time frame for heavier rain, with the potential for thunderstorms across southeast OK, appears to be Friday afternoon through Saturday morning when precipitable water values are expected to be between 1 and 1.5 inches. As a result, over an inch of rain will be possible from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning across much of the area. In reference to sounding climatology, precipitable water this high would be near record territory for southeast OK which increases the confidence in the potential of a flooding threat for late this week. The cold front associated with this low will allow for northerly winds to enter the area and when combined with the damp and mostly cloudy conditions expected, temperatures will be cool thus have reduced temps a little for this weekend. After a break from the rain on Sunday, a long wave trough begins to enter the area which may set up another soggy week. Monday Rain before 10am, then scattered showers between 10am and 1pm, then scattered showers and thunderstorms after 1pm. High near 70. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Monday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 40. Northwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. Calm wind. Tuesday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 54. Calm wind becoming south around 5 mph after midnight. Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 70. Southwest wind around 5 mph becoming northeast in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Calm wind. Thursday A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. South wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Thursday Night A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms, then a chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. Northeast wind 5 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Showers likely, mainly after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 61. East wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Friday Night Rain likely. Cloudy, with a low around 47. East wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Saturday A 40 percent chance of rain. Cloudy, with a high near 59. South wind around 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 44. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Partly sunny, with a high near 56. North wind around 5 mph.