Severe weather chances return on Monday

(TULSA, Okla.) Strong isentropic lift will develop Sunday night with the potential for a few elevated strong to severe thunderstorms across far northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas after midnight. Large hail would be the primary threat with any storms that develop. A frontal boundary will begin to lift north during the day Monday as a weak surface low develops over far southeast Kansas in response to approaching upper wave. The atmosphere will become very unstable across eastern Oklahoma. Strong to severe storms will likely develop by late afternoon along advancing cold front near the I-44 corridor. Moderate deep layer shear in the 40-45 knot range will support a few supercell structures initially with large hail and damaging winds, including a few tornadoes. Storms will likely congeal into multiple clusters as activity pushes into southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas during the evening hours, transitioning towards a damaging wind threat, although at least some tornado potential will persist. Storms forecast to push south of the Red River by Tuesday morning with the severe threat ending. Milder and more seasonable weather is expected for the middle part of next week, behind the cold front, with high temperatures generally in the lower to mid-70s. A stronger upper level wave will move out of the Rockies and into the central Plains on Thursday with shower/ thunderstorm chances increasing Thursday/Thursday night. Although there are still a few timing issues between models, precipitation should begin to shift south on Friday with cool and sunny conditions into the early part of next weekend. Monday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1pm. Some of the storms could be severe and produce heavy rainfall. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 85. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Monday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 57. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 74. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 52. North wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. Calm wind becoming west around 5 mph in the afternoon. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 54. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southeast after midnight. Thursday A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 77. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Thursday Night Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 55. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Friday A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 68. North wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. North wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 69. Northeast wind around 5 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 49. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 72. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon.