Storms brewing for first week of Spring

(TULSA, Okla.) By Sunday evening, surface winds began to weaken while winds just above the surface are expected to remain gusty through the overnight hours. Also, overnight, increasing cloud cover is forecast as a wave approaches the region. Two storm systems will affect the region during the early to middle part of the week, with locally heavy rains and at least low potential for severe storms. Elevated fire weather concerns on Tuesday are also worthy of mention. Widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms remain expected areawide from Monday, continuing through early Tuesday. The best chance of thunderstorms will exist Monday night across southeast Oklahoma and west central Arkansas as a cold front sweeps through the region. A few of these storms could become strong to severe with large hail and strong gusty winds the main concerns. Strong wind fields also support a low, but nonzero, tornado potential in parts of southeast Oklahoma Monday evening, depending on how much instability is realized. In addition to the severe weather threats, much of eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will see around an inch of rain with this event with locally higher amounts possible. These rains could cause some river and minor areal flooding. The strong storm system lifts off to the northeast on Tuesday. West to southwest winds will be gusty behind the Pacific front with drier air moving into the region along with mild temperatures. This will again elevate fire weather concerns. Another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected Wednesday afternoon into Thursday night across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas as a second storm system moves through the region. A limited severe threat may be possible with this storm system as well. Trends with the second system Wednesday and Thursday suggest higher thunder chances and more rainfall over our area than previously thought. The track of the upper wave will be similar to the first, just farther south. The surface low track will be more northeast out of Texas, from the ArkLaTex up through central Arkansas. Severe potential will again be limited by the fact the warm sector does not make in-roads into our area, but there should be some elevated instability especially in the south and east to warrant increase in thunder probabilities. Another round of locally heavy rainfall may again agitate some area rivers. Some low shower/storm chances are possible Saturday with an associated front moving through the region. Monday Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. High near 61. South wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Monday Night Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Low around 48. Southeast wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 65. West wind around 15 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Tuesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 42. West wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday A 20 percent chance of showers after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 61. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Wednesday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 46. Northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Thursday Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 57. North wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Thursday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1am, then a slight chance of showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 42. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 66. West wind 5 to 15 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 48. Southeast wind around 10 mph. Saturday Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. East wind 10 to 15 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 44. Northwest wind around 10 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 66. North wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.