Weather across America

(NATIONAL) A significant winter storm to bring heavy mountain snow, gusty winds, and dangerous travel conditions to much of the West, above average temperatures for the Plains and Midwest will get even warmer and increasing shower and thunderstorm chances for the Midwest and Great Lakes.

An upper-level trough/strong cold front dropping southward from the northeastern Pacific/western Canada will bring a significant winter storm to much of the West over the next couple of days. Increasing moisture flowing in from the Pacific will lead to heavy higher elevation/mountain snows for the Central Rockies and Cascades through Monday and will expand into the Sierra and ranges of the Northern Rockies/Great Basin on Tuesday. 

There is at least a moderate chance (>50%) that most of these locations will see a foot of snow or more through Tuesday evening. In addition, widespread, strong, gusty winds are expected, with numerous high wind-related watches and warnings in place across the Intermountain West as well as the adjacent High Plains. Some gusts may reach as high as 75 mph. Heavy snow rates of 1-2" per hour at times along with the gusty winds may lead to some areas of blowing/drifting snow and significantly reduced visibility. 

Some snow squalls are also likely across the northern Great Basin and Rockies Monday which can lead to sudden drops in visibility and flash freezes along area roadways, creating dangerous travel conditions. To the east, already anomalously warm temperatures this weekend over the heart of the country will warm up even more heading into the work week. Forecast highs Monday and Tuesday will soar as much as 30-45 degrees above late February averages. It will feel more like Spring across the Northern/Central Plains and Midwest with highs in the 60s and 70s. 

For the Southern Plains, the conditions will be more early Summer-like and downright hot for February. Highs will range from the low 80s to as hot as the mid-90s in southern Texas. Needless to say, these highs all across the Plains and Midwest will be at daily record-tying/breaking levels, in some cases by several degrees. A few February monthly records may also be tied/broken. 

The warmth in addition to dry conditions and gusty winds across the Southern High Plains has resulted in a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) from the Storm Prediction Center Monday, likely to continue into Tuesday. While not as anomalous, temperatures will be warming well above average for the East Coast as well, with highs into the 40s and 50s for New England, 50s and 60s for the Mid-Atlantic, 60s and 70s for the Carolinas, and 70s and 80s for the Southeast and Florida. 

However, these temperatures will be short lived for some areas, as the anomalous warmth makes a cold front associated with the western storm system pushing into the Northern Plains Tuesday that much more notable as temperatures plummet into the teens and 20s. The return to Winter will spread further south and eastward Wednesday just beyond the current forecast period.  As this storm system over the West continues eastward into the Plains/Midwest Tuesday, moist southerly flow ahead of the cold front will bring increasing shower and thunderstorm chances to the Midwest/Great Lakes.  

Strong low-level and upper-level dynamics will lead to the risk of some more potent thunderstorms with the potential for some locally heavy rainfall as well as severe weather. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a Slight Risk of severe weather (level 2/5) for the risk of large hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. This threat will ramp up late Tuesday afternoon and continue into the overnight hours, just beyond the current forecast period. Some moderate snow showers are also possible for portions of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes in the colder air behind the front.