Severe weather possible Tuesday

(TULSA, Okla.) Plentiful low-level moisture and steady south winds will maintain mild conditions including unseasonably warm overnight lows through Monday night. A cold front will move into northeast Oklahoma late Monday night and sweep through western Arkansas by mid-Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures on Tuesday will have minimal recovery behind the cold front and mark a notable change from the recent warm stretch. A brief window of strong forcing will accompany the frontal passage, and higher precipitation chances continue to favor areas north of Interstate 40. Forecast soundings suggest the current weak lapse rate environment will only briefly be augmented within the passing trough axis, with the result being weak instability despite plentiful low-level moisture. Scattered storms remain likely within the window of strongest forcing. The strongly sheared wind profiles could foster a brief strong to severe storm with any sustained updraft. Otherwise, the corridor of precipitation will make steady progress eastward with dry weather returning to the forecast area by mid-Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures nearer seasonal norms are expected to continue Wednesday into next weekend. The flow aloft across the continental United States will become more progressive by late week and the timing of individual waves within this pattern will show expected variability amongst extended data. The general trend has been for less of an influence from waves passing Thursday with a potentially stronger wave increasing precipitation chances Friday into Saturday. Monday Mostly cloudy, with a high near 75. South wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph. Monday Night A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after midnight. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 61. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms. Tuesday A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before noon. Mostly cloudy through mid-morning, then gradual clearing, with a temperature falling to around 54 by 5pm. South wind 10 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Tuesday Night Clear, with a low around 36. Northwest wind around 5 mph becoming northeast after midnight. Veterans Day Sunny, with a high near 65. East wind around 5 mph. Wednesday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 42. East wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 64. Southeast wind around 5 mph becoming west in the afternoon. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 41. North wind around 5 mph. Friday A 20 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 59. Northeast wind around 5 mph becoming southeast in the afternoon. Friday Night A 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 47. South wind 5 to 10 mph. Saturday A 30 percent chance of showers. Mostly sunny, with a high near 65. South wind around 10 mph. Saturday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 45. West wind around 5 mph. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 63. Northwest wind 5 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.